Beat The Spread Meaning
'Gourmet' inmate meal, as shown to me by the lovely ladies at the Williamson County (TN) Jail, 'recipe' is as follows. 1 pkg ramen noodles and seasoning pack (preferably chili flavor)- crushed, 1 '$0.99' size bag of cheetos (preferably 'japaleno')- crushed, 1/4 'meat stick'- cut into small pieces, 1 cheese stick- small pieces. Combine all ingredients in a commissary issued. Beating the spread originates in the domain of what's called point spread betting; essentially, the spread is the margin of victory by which the favored team needs to be victorious to win the bet - i.e. Covering the spread. The spread acts as a kind of handicap to even the odds, literally. Spread bets pay close to even money minus the sports books juice. However, the favorite must win by at least the number of games he is laying via the spread.
I learned two things from investment blogger Eddy Elfenbein this week.
First, I learned that if you were invested in the S&P 500 from 1932 to 2009, you'd have made a total return of 63,000% 14,000% (not including dividends). But if you were invested only the middle 2/3 of each month, you'd have LOST money. Wow.
Second, I learned that, in the NFL, heavy favorites consistently fail to beat the spread.
------
Since 1978, teams favored by 12 points or more were 220-275-9 against the spread. Ignoring the nine pushes, that's a winning percentage of only .444. The effect was easily large enough to turn a profit, even after the bookie's vigorish.
I wondered if, maybe, this was an anomaly that existed in earlier years, but that bookies eventually caught on to and erased. But, since 2005, those heavy favorites are 64-94-2.
Does the effect disappear for 'less heavy' favorites? Again going back to 1978, and looking at teams favored by 6 to 11.5 points ... they were 1361-1475-57 (.480 excluding pushes). Teams favored by 0.5 to 5.5 points were 2197-2330-156 (.485). So, yes, it seems the effect is more pronounced for the heavy favorites.
I broke it down a bit further, into 'one point' buckets from 8.5 up. Teams favored by 8.5 or 9 points were 163-187 (.466). Teams favored by 9.5 or 10 were 186-193-12 (.491). And so on.
For every one of those groups, except one, the favorites had a losing record. (The exception was teams favored by 15.5 or 16, who went 19-15 against the spread.) No favorite above 20 points has ever covered (0-7).
------
Is this a known anomaly? Maybe it's just my ignorance, but I've never heard that this happens. Well, actually, I should have known ... it was obvious in the numbers for the 'home underdog' effect.
But, actually, it seems to applies equally to home/road. Home favorites (12+) were 194-236-8, while road favorites were 26-39-1.
I'm very, very surprised.
Add this to the list of arguments against NCAA basketball point shaving. If favorites failing to cover is evidence of point shaving in the NCAA, then it must also be evidence of point shaving in the NFL too, right?
But hardly anyone argues that. I still think it's just a case of bookies shading their lines towards the underdog favorite.
(P.S. Good discussion of bookies' lines in some of MGL's comments here.)
Labels: betting, football, gambling, NFL, point shaving
Understanding the different types of betting options is crucial when you’re getting a start as a first-time sports bettor.
The Point Spread: Betting the spread
For those new to sports betting, the point spread is the simplest, most straightforward approach to placing wagers.
Sports books set a predetermined margin of points on a game and a team must win – or not lose – by that set number. That’s why you’ll often hear people say the team won, but they “didn’t cover the spread” so their bet still came up short.
It’s not a matter of a team winning or losing like in a moneyline bet.
For a favorite: The favorite must win by more than the point spread.For an underdog: The underdog must outright win OR lose by fewer than the point spread.Sports books aren’t in the business of predicting who will win or lose games. Their goal is setting a pre-game point spread with the intention to generate an equal amount of betting action/volume on both sides of the ledger – as much total money being bet on the favorite as on the underdog.
The vast majority of point spread wagers are made on football and basketball because of the proliferation of points that are scored in comparison to sports like baseball and hockey, where 1-0 or 2-1 games aren’t that out of the question or out of the norm. There’s one every night.
We Beat The Spread
For example, the New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets and New England is a 9½-point favorite. Bettors typically have to spend $110 or so to win $100 with sports books, known as “the house edge/advantage.” With a point spread bet, simply having a team win the game isn’t the key. The critical factor to betting a point spread is how much a team wins or loses by. If a wager is placed on New England – “laying” the 9½ points – the Patriots need to win the game by 10 or more points for that bet to pay off. If New England wins 28-20, those betting on the Jets plus 9½ points (points added to their final total) win the bet.
The same general rules apply for basketball and are quite easy to follow because of the inherent simplicity of the bet. When it comes to betting sports like baseball and hockey, the standard bets are made on the “money line” – an established number for both teams to win the game outright.
What makes point spread bets attractive are the fluid nature of each game – it’s a reality show that, when done right, is inexplicable. Games change on one play and momentum is a thing. But, when it comes to point spread betting, you know where you stand at every moment.
Beat The Spread Meaning Urban Dictionary
For those just starting out, the simplest form of gambling is betting the spread because it’s the easiest to explain and understand, which explains why it is the most popular form of sports wagering.